Preliminary CSI-Thermal Program Overview

March 6, 2010

When the public thinks of how you can “solarfy” your home and create renewable energy from our most reliable resource, the sun, people usually correlate household solar generation with standard photovoltaic (PV) panels.  Small PV systems of less than 500kW are usually installed on residential or commercial rooftops.  This type of solar generating systems takes solar radiation onto the PV panels, typically on a south facing rooftop, and converts the solar energy directly into electricity that is sent directly to the electrical grid.  The lesser known available solar generating systems are solar water heater (SWH) systems that receives the sun’s heat on flat plate collectors or evacuated absorber tubes.  These collection elements are either filled with water or a liquid transfer medium that absorbs the solar energy to pass onto water inside a solar hot water tank that stores the solar heated water until the residential customers can use the hot water.  This is unlike PV systems which cannot efficiently store the energy and wait until when customers arrive home from work at the end of an arbitrary business day.  Solar water heaters will absorb the solar energy distributed during the day, when the sun is available, and allows for hot showers, dish washing, heated pools, and clothes washing when people arrive home from work and late into the night.

On January 21, 2010, the CPUC approved $305.8 million program to incentivize the rapid expansion and installation of these solar water heaters for customers of PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E.    Starting May 1, homes and businesses will be able to install solar water heater systems and receive an instant rebate under the CSI – Thermal program that will couple with ongoing production based incentives in the program until available funds in the program get exhausted.  These California state incentives add onto the federal 30% incentive tax credits that have been available for renewable energy systems bound to expire in 2016.   With all the talk about new local incentive programs, existing federal programs, and understanding the benefit of a SWH system, the average customer can be in uncharted educational territory when it comes down to making a reasonable and economical decision to implement a SWH system.  From a reasonable point of view, it makes complete sense to install a SWH system because the displacement of therms, via natural gas generation, with solar thermal generation.  Lessening our dependence on natural gas reduces our country’s dependence on conventional fossil fuels and reduces our yearly CO2 emissions.  I hope I can assist in California utility customers understand the economic benefit so they do not go blindly into a  new investment.

What is the incentive?

Simply, the CSI – Thermal program for natural gas displacement units are simply stated as:

Step Incentive for Average Residential Solar Water Heating System Incentive per
Therm Displaced
1 $1,500 $12.82
2 $1,200 $10.26
3 $900 $7.69
4 $550 $4.70

The 4 tiers represent levels that the program will decrease as more SWH systems are installed and as the program budget gets exhausted.  $50 million, $45 million, $45 million, and $40 million are the various funding ceilings for each of the four steps so assuming that systems will cost the same today compared to sometime later in the program, it makes the most economical sense to get the $1,500 up front incentive and start at the highest incentive level per therm displaced.  Even though this program runs for 8 years until December 31, 2017 or until the program budget is exhausted, be aware that people will more likely rush to get the highest upfront incentives.   So even though the entire program will not end anytime soon, the first tier will run out at a faster rate that the lower ones.

Regardless of the upfront incentive, someone deciding to make a major investment in one of these SWH systems has to make sure if it is a good investment for their financial and gas usage lifestyle.  So let’s look at an arbitrary case:

Average residential system cost (this is going to very +/- 15% depending on the size of your house): ~$6500
Note: this active closed loop cost is taken from the Itron evaluation on page 15
CSI-Thermal Upfront Incentive: $1500
30% Investment Tax Credit: $1500 (taken from $6500 system cost – $1500 CSI-Thermal Incentive)
Average Yearly Natural Gas Displacement: 117 therms
1st year Savings: 117 therms x $12.82/therm displaced = $1499.94

Capital cost after year 1: $6500-$1500-$150-$1499.94 =  $2006.06

Variables

- Remember while the CPUC staff assumes that the average residential SWH system will displace 117 therms per year, a generation statistic that will vary depending on where you reside.  Systems installed in San Diego, San Ramon, Bakersfield, and Blythe will vary considerably and further analysis should be consulted with your certified installer.  The CPUC should also be coming out with a simple generation calculator before the program is formally initiated on May 1.

- System cost will also vary depending on the complexity of the SWH system and the type of system.  For example, whether you decide on a passive or active SWH system is best for your residence, the associated cost will fluctuate as well.  I recommend to get at least two bids from qualified and experienced installers to ensure that the system meets the “lowest cost, best fit” match for your needs.

- Incentive caps.  Be aware that the extraordinary production incentives for displacement of natural gas does not qualify for the entire life of your system.  Instead (see page 48)

Soon a formal handbook will be released to see the more complete details of the CSI Thermal program.  My biggest question has to do with the displacement of therms and scenarios where the monthly production based incentive for displacing therms is larger than the actual total monthly gas bill.  Will PG&E, SDG&E, or SCE give you an ongoing credit applicable for future months?  I doubt it but we’ll find out for sure when the handbook is released.   If your monthly bill is $21  and your usage is 23 therms while displacing 4 therms via a SWH system (at a step 1 rate of $12.82/therm displaced), you should receive a production based incentive for ~$51.  There are two scenarios that could happen:

a) The gas company zeros out your gas part of your bill
b) The gas company zeros out your gas part of the bill AND gives you a credit for $30 toward future billing statements

Option B would be amazingly generous and I can imagine the utilities and CPUC would make sure that customers would not get those kind of ongoing residual benefits.

The next analysis of the CSI – Thermal program (after the handbook is released) will go more into the typical payback of one of these SWH systems.

Step Incentive for Average Residential Solar Water Heating System Incentive per
Therm Displaced
1 $1,500 $12.82
2 $1,200 $10.26
3 $900 $7.69
4 $550 $4.70

GDP Components

August 31, 2009
Breakdown of 2008 GDP into CIGX

Breakdown of 2008 GDP into CIGX


Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

August 23, 2009

“Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States”. This is mainly used as a measure of economic output. You look for GDP going negative to signal a recession. The GDP itself is a huge economic indicator, but it pays to find out what goes into the GDP and look at the components.

The components of GDP are private consumption, investment, government spending, and exports minus imports or as an equation GDP = C + I + G + (X – M). Next time I will explore each of these components.


Bird’s Eye View

August 14, 2009

I haven’t been updating recently, but I plan to start writing again soon since I need to figure out what to invest in. I’ve been staying out of the market, because it was difficult for me to make sense of anything. To get back into the game, I am going to dissect GDP and look at opportunities there.


The Secret Millionaire’s Club

July 24, 2009

Check out an episode of The Secret Millionarie’s Club from Warren Buffett.


Female Condoms

July 7, 2009

Female Health Company (FHCO) is getting a bit of buzz from CNN.

They have a lot going for them according to this article.

It is ranked 8th in Fortune’s Small Business 100 for 2009.

Might be a good investment, but it has already doubled in the last year.


Wolfram Alpha

May 15, 2009

There’s been some hype about Wolfram Alpha, but most of that has been just the PR machine moving its gears. What is it really good for? It’s good for comparing stocks. You can just type in two stocks and it will do a comparison on them just like this.


Facebook, the next Myspace

April 21, 2009

It’s official, facebook is a dead property. I recently got my facebook account disabled. It turns out I’m in good company (Guy Kawasaki and others). Not that I’m bitter that my account got disabled, but it is not a good sign of things to come. When your mom is on facebook, you know that it is no longer cool. Twitter is what’s cool now. It has shot up in popularity without a good revenue model. Everyone used to be on Myspace and that was the problem, because of all the teeny boppers. Have you tried to read any comments on youtube?

False positives hurt the user experience. Once you ruin that experience the illusion is gone. RIP facebook.


Tax and IRA Reminder

April 10, 2009

On this Good Friday, let me remind everybody that it is not too late to make an IRA contribution to 2008. The deadline is April 15, so if you find that you will be getting a nice tax refund, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to contribute to an IRA account. Plus stock prices are on the rise.

Happy investing.


Review: Motorola Z9 Cell Phone

March 30, 2009

I’ve had the Motorla Z9 phone with an AT&T plan for about 7 months now, and I’ve had a great chance to see the downfalls and highlights of this Motorola slider phone.   In my seven years of having a cell phone, I’ve been able to have experienced Sprint, Verizon, and now AT&T.  I’m a big believer in not paying hundreds of dollars for a cell phone so I usually just try to get a free one from the store or sign up for a two year plan on Amazon and get it for cheap (or free in this case back in August 2008).

The Motorola Z9 is a sturdy slide phone with a nice mahogany color, easily distinguishable keypad to navigate through menus, great volume control, and good overall functionality.  There are a number of improvements that I would like to see Motorola add on, but even though I wasn’t thoroughly impressed with my first slider phone, it is not a terrible phone either.  At about .6 inches think and 5 ounces heavy, this compact phone can easily fit into your pocket,  and I’ve dropped it numerous times on the concrete ground, but the Motorola Z9 has been able to withstand some of those accidents.

Cellular Service

I’m not sure if this is the service of AT&T or Motorola’s (MOT) wireless technology but I have had more dropped calls with this phone than any of my two previous flip phones.  These dropped calls occur even in normal locations like a home or outside in an open area.   I would rank Verizon (VZ) first with Sprint (S) and AT&T (T) tied for second.

Battery Life

The battery life is terribly disappointing as I notice that it gets to low battery status rather quickly.  Cnet rates the talk time at 240 minutes talk time or 312 hours of standby time.  I would more realistically say that the talk time is more like 180 minutes with a 72 hour standby time.  The battery also seems to get overly warm during normal usage.

Extra Features

The features on the Z9 is everything that someone would like for a phone without a data plan.  Whether you’re talking about a 2 megapixel camera phone with decent quality photos, bluetooth compatibility, mp3 music playing ability, a slot for a micro SD card, and a queued history of the last 120 calls.  You can sort your list of calls by incoming and outgoing calls but not by solely missed calls.

Additional Improvements

The “go online” button above the green “talk button” can easily be accidentally pushed (when trying to make a call) which causes unnecessary data fees.  After a couple months of frustration, I figured out a solution to ensure that the “go online” button will never cause you any distress:

1) Press the Menu key
2)
Scroll down and select Settings
3)
Scroll down and select Security
4)
Scroll down and select Lock Application
5)
Enter access code (default is 1234 I think) & select “WebAccess” to lock and press OK

Overall Grades

Battery Life: D+
Functionality: A-
Durability: A
Photo Quality: B
Cellular Service: C
Overall Cell Phone Rating: B-


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